A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
