Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
